2024 Mid-Year Regional Market Updates - Christie’s International Real Estate (2024)

2024 Mid-Year Luxury Outlook

Luxury brokers weigh in on local market conditions around the world

From the Americas to Europe and Asia-Pacific to the Middle East, transaction volume is slowly building from 2023, as global inflation moderates and homebuyers and sellers show increased confidence.

THE AMERICAS

The United States

Los Angeles:

On top of high interest rates, luxury homebuyers and sellers in Los Angeles have been grappling with the city’s new mansion tax, which imposes a 4% levy on any residential or commercial transaction above $5 million and a 5.5% tax on sales over $10 million. Known as Measure ULA, the tax had a major impact in the final nine months of 2023, but things have begun to improve.

Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California CEO Aaron Kirman says the luxury market has picked up in 2024, with a notable increase in foreign buyers. In an interview with The Real Deal in April, Kirman noted, “I’ve had more billionaires call me in the last three months than I had the whole of last year.”

Kirman says there is more room for growth in the months ahead, though he expects a slowdown in November amid the US presidential election. “Buyers and sellers are typically anxious to see the election’s outcome.”

San Francisco Bay Area:

Like LA, the San Francisco Bay Area has seen an influx of foreign buyers in 2024. According to Chris Trapani, CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno, these buyers are looking to plant large sums of money – $20 million to $30 million – in Silicon Valley, contributing to a robust luxury marketplace where well-priced, move-in ready homes are selling quickly, while renovation projects are “facing hurdles.”

“These buyers are extremely thoughtful and deliberate in their property searches. Many already own multiple luxury homes around the world, so there is no particular urgency driving their purchase decisions,” says Trapani.

Trapani also points to the booming AI sector, led by the performance of Nvidia, as “having a profound impact on competition for real estate and rising values in all price points.”

Still, he notes that, “Despite tremendous liquidity at the highest ends of the market, buyers will make offers on homes they believe are a good value. I can’t recall any recent sale where the perception in the local real estate community was that it sold at an astronomical price.”

Menlo Park agent Nathalie de Saint Andrieu adds, “Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, I anticipate the ultra-luxury market will remain robust overall, though we may see some seasonal slowing in the fall.”

New York Metro:

On the opposite coast, two different dynamics are at play in the New York metro. Manhattan is still a buyer’s market, with a wide range of high-end properties available. Sonja Cullaro, EVP of Christie’s International Real Estate Group in the tri-state area, says that foreign investors make up a growing share of the buyer pool thanks to New York City’s reputation as a stable global real estate investment.

In the suburban markets of northern New Jersey, Westchester, and the Hudson Valley, home sellers still have the upper hand. Low inventory and high demand have created a competitive environment for buyers, who are often up against multiple offers.

Overall, Cullaro remains optimistic about what lies ahead for the metro area’s real estate markets. “With the S&P posting its biggest first quarter gain since 2019, we expect that demand will be helped by the performance of the stock market, strong economic conditions and cooling inflation.”

Miami:

While not at the highs of 2022-23, the luxury real estate market in Miami remains robust, with strong demand supporting steady price growth in many areas. According to Edgardo Defortuna, President and CEO of Miami-based Fortune Christie’s International Real Estate, high-net-worth individuals continue to seek premium properties as both primary residences and investment opportunities. And these purchases are driven by the desire for prime locations and exclusive amenities.

As Defortuna predicted, a pullback among US buyers due to sticky inflation and high interest rates has been offset by an increase in foreign buyers in 2024, primarily from Latin America. He attributes this to changing political climates and extremely weak growth expectations in the region, leading many individuals to seek investment opportunities outside of their home countries.

“The ongoing appeal of real estate as a stable investment contributes to this market’s strength,” notes Defortuna.

Chicago:

It truly is a tale of two cities in the Second City, where the fortunes of high-end single-family homes and condos have diverged in recent years.

In the city, the median price of single-family homes above $1 million and $2 million rose 6.5% and 6.2% respectively in the first quarter of 2024 vs. the year earlier period, healthy gains in a market known for moderate price moves. And along the North Shore, the market is also typically strong. Luxury single-family inventory in those tony lakefront suburbs has been rising this year, but sales growth is outpacing the increase, resulting in less than 2 months’ supply.

Meanwhile, Rick Sobin, Vice President of Brokerage Services with @properties Christie’s International Real Estate, says he has been surprised by the recent stagnation of Chicago’s upper-end condo market, particularly in top-tier buildings. As of June, at $4 million-plus, there were only 18 condominium transactions in the trailing 12 months. In the 12 months prior, there were 31.

“Traditionally, a lot of our high-end condos were sold to suburban buyers looking for a second home in the city. Lately though, we’ve been competing with more second-home purchases outside of Chicago – places like Naples, Scottsdale, and Colorado,” Sobin notes.

However, things are starting to improve. The city has seen a notable increase in condo sales over $1 million this spring, as more sellers have accepted pricing realities and buyers are showing increased confidence in the market.

New England:

New England’s luxury real estate market has gained momentum in 2024, and LandVest Christie’s International Real Estate is at the forefront. As one of the region’s leading independent brokerages, the firm serves luxury markets throughout Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, and the Adirondacks of New York.

“We enjoyed a strong start to the year in terms of transactions, dollar values, and listings – all of which increased year-over-year from 2023,” says Slater Anderson, Vice President and Managing Director of Real Estate for LandVest. According to data from the firm’s 2024 outlook, LandVest saw a 63% increase in transactions and a 24% increase in dollar volume in the first quarter. The firm’s active listing inventory grew 34% during that same period.

Anderson notes that market dynamics vary by price point. For homes priced around $1 million, it continues to be a seller’s market amid strong demand and a lack of quality inventory. Conversely, the top end of the market is beginning to shift in favor of buyers due to price resistance and weaker demand.

Mountain West

With world-class recreational opportunities surrounded by natural beauty, the allure of the Mountain West endures among luxury homebuyers in the U.S.

Montana:

In Montana, high-end shoppers have a wide range of housing choices – from ranches and residential properties to waterfront estates and ski-in/ski-out homes. But they all have one thing in common.

“Good inventory is in short supply,” says Ryon Brewer, President of PureWest Christie’s International Real Estate, a leading independent brokerage serving popular ski resort towns such as Big Sky and Whitefish. “Desirable properties that are priced to market attract cash buyers quickly.”

Despite limited inventory, the volume of luxury sales has surprisingly remained steady, led by the upper end of the market. Through early May, PureWest Christie’s International Real Estate saw a 10% increase in transactions over $2 million and a nearly 50% increase in sales over $4 million, year over year. The average sales price for $4 million-plus homes grew 3% during that same period.

Park City, Utah:

It’s a similar dynamic in Park City, Utah. “Sales remain strong, and the high-end cash buyer is willing to pay for the right home. Inventory remains an issue though,” says Sam Cubis, Co-Founder of Christie’s International Real Estate Park City.

Fueling the demand is the expansion of Deer Valley Resort, one of America’s premier ski destinations. The expansion will add 3,700 acres of skiable terrain and a new base village featuring more than 1,800 private residences along with luxury hotels, retail space, dining options and more. The development also includes Marcella, a new gated community offering ski-in/ski-out homesites and an 18-hole championship golf course designed by Tiger Woods.

New communities like Marcella have spurred an uptick in land sales in recent months. According to Park City MLS data, 36 lots sold for over $2 million through early May, and Cubis notes that volume will increase as Marcella begins releasing golf course lots later this year. Meanwhile, 79 single-family homes or condos sold for more than $4 million during this time.

“The continued development at Deer Valley East Village is in turn driving demand within areas just outside the core village itself,” Cubis says.

Sun Valley, Idaho:

In Sun Valley, Idaho, sales activity in the luxury market is outperforming 2023 levels. “Single-family home sales and vacant land are ahead of pace,” says Suzanne Williams, Owner of Sun Valley Real Estate LLC.

Local MLS data shows that sales are up 9% year to date, and Williams says there is no slowdown in sight. Over the past few months her firm has sold several properties over the $7-million mark, including a $9.5 million new construction mountainside home in Lake Creek and an $8.95 million estate just north of Ketchum.

Sun Valley is attracting affluent buyers from California, Washington, Texas, Florida, Connecticut, and New York. Buyers are drawn to the area’s mountain lifestyle, recreational opportunities, and affordability relative to other ski resorts in the region.

Atlanta, Georgia:

If there was one word to describe the luxury real estate market in Metro Atlanta, it would be “hyperlocal.” While there is steady growth overall, market conditions continue to differ based on location and price point.

When it comes to properties valued at $2 million and above, “many areas are still facing inventory shortages which benefit the seller,” says Lane McCormack, CEO of Ansley Real Estate Christie’s International. This includes popular neighborhoods like historic Druid Hills and Inman Park, where available inventory was under 4 months’ supply in May. Just a few miles away, it is firmly a buyer’s market in the neighborhoods that make up the Buckhead area, which had approximately nine months’ of inventory that same month.

As for the ultra-luxury category, there has been a sharp increase in the number of homes priced over $10 million as Atlanta attracts more affluent buyers. Currently Ansley Real Estate Christie’s International is representing The Penthouse at Graydon Buckhead, offered at $13.9 million; a $12.9 million listing in Buckhead; and a $10.9 million English Manor estate in Tuxedo Park.

Looking ahead, McCormack is confident that Atlanta’s luxury market will remain strong – due in large part to an influx of new residents drawn to the area’s strong labor market, mild winter climate, and lower cost of living relative to other major metros.

Texas

Luxury continues to drive the market in the major metros of Texas.

Dallas:

In Dallas, @properties lone star Christie’s International Real Estate CEO Jerry Mooty Jr. says that the luxury market is still active, with a number of cash buyers. Mooty recently represented the buyer in a $7.75 million transaction, and his firm has sold several other high-end properties in 2024.

“Dallas is a hotbed for high-end real estate activity, driven by a booming job market,” Mooty noted in an April 2024 blog post. “The influx of corporate relocations, moving their headquarters or adding significant regional footprints to Dallas and its surrounding suburbs, has fueled demand. Additionally, Dallas’s prominence in the finance sector (as the second-largest finance hub in the U.S. after New York City) continues to attract affluent professionals.”

Meanwhile, despite inventory increasing 64.2% year-over-year in Dallas County, easing supply constraints, Mooty says the mid- to lower-end of the market is relatively stagnant due to mortgage rates. “Rates need to dip in order to get consumer confidence up.”

Austin:

Further south, the Austin metro area is cooling off after a 12-year streak as the fastest-growing region in the country. During the height of the pandemic, home prices soared in Texas’ capital city thanks to an influx of remote workers and a booming tech industry. Now, it is widely reported that Austin is shifting towards a more balanced market as inventory rises and home prices dip.

Still, prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. And the luxury market continues to be robust, particularly in established neighborhoods like West Lake Hills, Tarrytown, and Barton Creek, says Romeo Manzanilla, Principal, Chief Operating Officer, and Broker of Record for @properties lone star Christie’s International Real Estate in Austin.

“Properties in prime locations, such as those with waterfront views, in gated communities, or near downtown are still commanding premium prices,” says Manzanilla.

According to a report from the Austin Board of Realtors, the average sales price for a single-family home in the Westlake area was $2.7 million in May and $2.4 million year to date – an annual increase of 33.7% and 4.9%, respectively. Through the end of May, the Westlake area’s total sales volume grew 9.2% compared to the same period last year.

In addition to Austin’s established neighborhoods, new areas are emerging as luxury hotspots. “East Austin and parts of South Austin have seen significant luxury development, attracting buyers with modern high-end condos and innovative residential projects,” says Manzanilla. Looking ahead, he anticipates more moderate price appreciation in Austin’s luxury market as well as rising interest from international buyers “drawn by the city’s economic opportunities, stable real estate market, and high quality of life.”

Naples, Florida:

“It’s no surprise that, along with the Southwest Florida market at large, the number of luxury sales slowed in the first quarter of 2024 compared to their first quarter 2023 peak,” says Mike Dodge, Director of Education and Research for Southwest Florida’s leading brokerage firm, John R. Wood Christie’s International Real Estate, based in Naples.

But Dodge reports that within the luxury market, certain price points are registering improved performance year over year. “Sales over $5 million posted a 4% increase, and sales over $10 million posted a 14% increase,” he notes.

The trend falls in line with the emergence of new, ultra-luxury development along Naples’ coastline in areas like Coquina Sands. Older 1960s and ‘70s era homes that were selling for $2 million are being torn down and replaced with homes priced from $10 million all the way up to $40 million. Luxury hospitality brands like The Ritz-Carlton, Rosewood and Four Seasons are lending their names to residential projects there, and demand is strong.

However, despite some eye-popping numbers, Dodge cautions sellers who are bent on achieving record prices. “Market conditions have changed dramatically since the unprecedented buyer surge of 2020-22. So now there are two groups of sellers: those that are pricing in line with the market, attracting offers and making it to closing, and those that are pricing in a way that is not generating results.”

South Carolinas Lowcountry:

South Carolina’s Lowcountry, one of the hottest housing markets in the fastest-growing state in America, may finally be showing signs of cooling. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, South Carolina led every state in the nation in percentage population growth in 2023, and FHFA data shows a 45% increase in home prices over the past four years. But Will Davis, President and Broker in Charge of The Litchfield Company | Christie’s International Real Estate, reports that, “We have seen anecdotal evidence of a pullback in values of luxury homes.”

“Median prices are holding steady, year over year,” Davis notes, while the pace of absorption is slowing. The oceanfront community of Myrtle Beach saw months’ supply of inventory rise from 2.9 months in March 2023 to 4.3 months a year later.

Still, Davis says the oceanfront market is faring better than luxury markets inland, which tend to attract more primary home buyers. “The vacation/second home market is more of an all-cash buyer, whereas the luxury primary home market is more negatively affected by interest rates. The luxury all cash buyer is alive and well.”

While Davis predicts that high rates will temper sales for the rest of the year, the gravitational pull of South Carolina will continue to be the predominant force in the market. “The influx of new residents into our area and our state shows no signs of letting up,” he says. “South Carolina real estate is still relatively inexpensive when compared to other coastal markets around the U.S.”

Canada’s luxury real estate market continues to face strong headwinds, perhaps most notably from its Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act, better known as the Foreign Buyer Ban, enacted at the start of 2023. Despite numerous exemptions, the ruling, which prevents non-Canadians from purchasing residential property in Canada until the end of 2027, has slowed activity at the upper end of the market. Adding to the challenges for Canada’s luxury real estate market are high interest rates and a significant change in the country’s capital gains tax on gains over $250,000 for all properties besides primary residences.

Ottawa:

In the capital city of Ottawa, the luxury market has been soft for the first half of the year, according to Marilyn Wilson, CEO and Founder of Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate Marilyn Wilson Dream Properties. Wilson reports that while the market is active, prices are down, with an oversupply of inventory, including new-build condos. Luxury properties must be in turnkey condition to sell, but many sellers are pricing too high, says Wilson.

“People want to buy in Ottawa, but are remaining cautious,” said Wilson. “I predict we will see some top sales in the second half of the year, but our market will continue to face a surplus of inventory, due to high interest rates and taxes and a weakening tech sector.”

Vancouver:

The aforementioned restrictions and tax implications have put a damper on the Vancouver luxury market as well, according to Boris Yip, Chief Operating Officer of faithwilson | Christie’s International Real Estate. “The capital gains tax and higher interest rates are impacting a lot of smaller investors who have their retirement savings in real estate,” he says. “This combination is causing a bit of a standstill, as the prices and interest rates have not dropped to where it makes sense for buyers.”

Despite the current slowdown in Vancouver’s luxury market, Yip is optimistic. “Vancouver is still in demand from luxury buyers, and buyers are still booking appointments. Our hope is that interest rates drop slightly, which should reinvigorate the market,” he says.

Costa Rica

Guanacaste Province:

While Costa Rica’s luxury real estate market has been slower than expected in the first half of 2024, interest in the country remains robust, according to Bob Davey, Managing Director and Broker at Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate Costa Rica Resort and Estate Properties. One encouraging sign for the remainder of 2024 is the recent torrid pace of sales within high-end branded residence developments, he notes.

Additionally, Costa Rica’s tourism and hospitality sector is at an all-time high, a major indicator for a positive outlook for the second half of 2024. “Costa Rica’s ultra-luxury market has been exceptional, and we expect a strong finish to the year,” says Davey. “Discovery Land Company’s Zapotal development has exceeded $850 million in presales since its launch 24 months ago along with $375 million in presales at Peninsula Papagayo, which is a great sign for our luxury projects launching later in 2024.”

Davey’s firm sold several $5 million+ homes at Cantomar Ocean Club in the first half of the year as well.

Caribbean

U.S. Virgin Islands:

In the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas, St. Croix and St. John, things are leveling off after years of a post-pandemic seller’s market.

In St. Croix, the largest of the three islands, high insurance costs and interest rates are causing a slight downshift in buyer activity, according to Jill Cherubin, Managing Broker in the St. Croix office of Christie’s International Real Estate U.S. Virgin Islands. Income property is still in high demand; Cherubin reports seeing a steady stream of second home buyers looking for a home they can both rent and use themselves. She points out that although the market is heading into “slow season,” typically aligning with hurricane season from July-October, interest remains robust – which she says is a good leading indicator for the island. She predicts a surge in activity starting in November.

Similarly, real estate transactions have slowed down compared to the same time last year in St. Thomas, with the island expected to move toward a more balanced market, or even a buyers’ market, in the second half of the year, according to Margo Lynch, Managing Broker in the St. Thomas office of Christie’s International Real Estate U.S. Virgin Islands.

In St. John, the first half of 2024 was relatively slow but picked up in June, added Keleigh Rees, Managing Broker of Islandia Christie’s International Real Estate.

Overall, “the Caribbean remains ripe for development, growth, and expansion as buyers and investors continue to see the value of the region,” said Danielle Austin, President of Christie’s International Real Estate Caribbean Affiliates.

EUROPE

United Kingdom

London:

In London, recent sales data demonstrates an overall stable market, characterized by nominal price changes, gradually rising demand and cautious optimism. England’s economy defied predictions early in the year, with inflation falling at a faster rate than expected and interest rates stabilizing. As a result, the luxury real estate market has remained relatively resilient, and is only expected to improve during the second half of 2024, according to Leslie Schroeder, Head of Residential Research at Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate Carter Jonas.

“In the UK, the prime luxury residential market remains an undeniable magnet for wealthy buyers and investors, consistently attracting strong domestic and international demand,” says Schroeder.

Well-known areas like Mayfair, Kensington, Knightsbridge and Chelsea are seeing robust levels of demand, as buyers seek grand, historic properties in legacy neighborhoods that have proven, lasting value. Oftentimes, buyers in these prestigious communities view their homes as practical hard assets and smart investments that provide a hedge against inflation.

France

Paris:

Paris continues to prove its status as a blue-chip luxury real estate market while the broader market recovers following a price correction in 2023.

After a price decline of 8% last year, sales volumes are now recovering rapidly as buyers recognize value and mortgage rates have come down. “We were confident that fluidity would return to the market in 2024, and this prediction has been confirmed,” says Charles-Marie Jottras, President at Daniel Feau Conseil Immobilier, Christie’s International Real Estate’s Parisian affiliate.

Meanwhile, Paris’ high-end market has remained strong throughout. Jottras notes that luxury pricing has barely seen a dip. “Restrictive building regulations and steady demand perpetuate a scarcity of luxury homes, which supports underlying value, especially among properties without flaw.”

Jottras points to interest from foreign investors, particularly those from the United States, as another market driver, with many buyers taking advantage of exchange rates that favor the US dollar against the euro. The 2024 Summer Olympics, set to take place in Paris in July, is also drawing the attention of international investors.

Germany

Munich:

The end of 2023 marked a turning point for Munich, as interest rates started to decrease, drawing back some buyers who had stepped to the sidelines earlier in the year. From November 2023 to May 2024, interest rates dropped nearly 20 percent.

“We are currently seeing the first potential buyers returning to the purchase market, but not yet in such large numbers that a significant excess demand will lead to rising prices,” says Sabine Lenzer, Head of International Sales at RIEDEL, Munich’s leading brokerage.

The real estate market in Germany continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine and the country’s weaker economy relative to other G20 nations, leading some buyers to pull back on making major property-investment decisions.

“Potential buyers also expect interest rates to fall further and are waiting until then to make a purchase decision,” says Lenzer. “As soon as interest rates start to move sideways, we expect to see an increase in demand, and subsequently, a rise in prices.”

The luxury real estate market remains strong in the Geneva and Zurich markets and the ski havens of Verbier, Gstaad and St. Moritz. Despite global economic fluctuations and elevated interest rates, demand for high-end properties remains solid.

Geneva/Lausanne/Verbier/Gstaad:

In French-speaking Switzerland, major cities including Geneva and Lausanne, as well as the prestigious ski resort towns of Verbier and Gstaad, continue to be a prime target for high-net-worth homebuyers, according to Maxime Dubus, Managing Director of Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate SPG One. Sought-after properties include those with panoramic mountain views, luxury city-center residences, and private estates offering privacy and exclusivity. Prices remain high due to a competitive market and limited supply.

Zurich/St. Moritz/Lucerne:

After a relatively quiet 2023, the market has picked up in Zurich, St. Moritz and Lucerne. Pascal Vaucher, CEO of Wüst und Wüst Christie’s International Real Estate, says luxury prices in the German-speaking region of Switzerland are becoming a bit more stable than they had been, resulting in more properties on the market, and more activity from buyers. High interest rates have not affected the luxury property market, and he says the market is expected to remain strong throughout 2024, judging from increased seller and buyer activity in recent months.

Belgium

The Belgian regions of Flanders and Wallonia are experiencing continued post-pandemic growth in their luxury real estate markets, with new listings and sales at Hillewaere Vastgoed, Christie’s International Real Estate’s affiliate in the region, doubling in the first four months of the year.

Taking into account macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts, stabilization of long-term rates in the European Union, an expected further stabilization of inflation and general positivity toward the global stock market, we expect this predominantly positive trend to continue. In terms of both pricing and demand, we do not foresee any hurdles in 2024,” says Bart Van Delm, Managing Director at Hillewaere Vastgoed.

However, in the Belgian capital of Brussels, the residential market is still correcting depending on product type, notes Van Delm. Although the city remains the country’s priciest real estate market, Brussels saw an 18.9% median price drop in its single-family home market from 2022 to 2023, a decline that Van Delm says can be characterized as a correction to the rapid price growth the region experienced throughout the pandemic. The one segment of Brussels’ market that has stood strong against these price fluctuations is luxury condominiums and penthouses, where Van Delm says, “We see a clear stabilization.”

Italy

Rome/Milan/Naples:

The luxury real estate market in Rome, Milan and Naples “seems to know no crisis and seems determined to continue the momentum that has characterized the last two years,” says Massimiliano Bulzoni, Managing Director of Exclusive RE, the Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate in the three cities. “High-net-worth buyers in Italy’s largest markets are continuing to seek out luxury properties, with many willing to pay sky-high sums for them.”

He predicts this demand will continue, especially among foreign buyers. In the first half of 2024, Bulzoni has seen lower than expected inventory, with a notable uptick in interest for residential properties in historic centers, mainly from investors in the hospitality and short-term rental sectors.

Among the factors driving interest in Italy are numerous tax benefits for Italian nationals who choose to return to live in the country, or for foreigners who transfer their current tax residence to Italy – in particular, the Flat Tax Regime for Foreign Workers, also known as the “Resident Non-Domiciled” (RND) regime. The RND, introduced in 2017, provides a significant tax advantage for high-income earners relocating to Italy, offering predictability and potentially lower tax burdens compared to standard progressive tax rates.

Portugal

Lisbon:

Lisbon’s luxury real estate market slowed significantly in the first half of the year following years of growth, caused by the sunsetting of the Regime for International Residents (RNH) at the end of 2023, as well as uncertainty driven by national elections in March, according to Joao Cilia, CEO of Porta da Frente Christie’s International Real Estate. The RNH program was introduced in 2009 to help boost the real estate market and economy after the 2008 financial crisis. In 2022, nearly 75,000 foreign investors benefitted from the regime.

Prices in Portugal’s historic capital city continue to increase, according to Cilia, but at a more moderate pace than in years prior. The end of the RNH predictably caused a downturn in transactions with international buyers, but Cilia points out that the newly appointed government is expected to bring back some of the fiscal programs targeting international investors. Meanwhile, a slight decrease in interest rates and increasing confidence among the local population has brought buyers of more moderately priced homes back to the market.

Asia

United Arab Emirates

Dubai:

Dubai’s real estate market has grown substantially in 2024, with the luxury market leading that charge, according to Jackie Johns, Managing Partner at Christie’s International Real Estate Dubai. In the first quarter, home sales above the price point of AED10 million rose by 19% year-over-year to reach 105 transactions. Prices are also continuing to rise in Dubai’s high-end enclaves, including areas such as Palm Jumeirah and Jumeirah Bay, where prices rose 16% in 2023 and 44% in 2022. Overseas demand from high-net-worth individuals looking to make Dubai their permanent home continues to be a major factor in Dubai’s swift growth, with foreign buyers drawn by a variety of factors such as the 10-year Golden Visa and high returns on investment, according to Johns.

Off-plan development sales have also skyrocketed. In the first quarter of 2024, they reached approximately AED10 billion – a 73% jump from the last quarter of 2023, according to Johns. These numbers are driven in large part by sales over AED10 million, with off-plan transactions at that price point more than doubling. “To put it into perspective, recent reports have stated that approximately one off-plan project was launched every day in Dubai between January and March,” says Johns.

Looking to the future, Johns expects Dubai’s luxury market to mature and stabilize, characterized by continued growth but a moderation in price increases.

Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh City:

With a stable economy, growth of manufacturing, and strong foreign investment, Vietnam’s real estate market has grown exponentially over the past decade and is expected to reach a value of $4.4 trillion USD in 2024. The emerging nation is one of the largest exporters of coffee and rice and has welcomed a growing list of international blue-chip brands that have established operations in the country, including Samsung, Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Microsoft and Honda.

Vietnam has seen an uptick in foreign buyers and investors, primarily from Asian countries including China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan, according to Sassy Nguyen, Broker-Owner of S&S Christie’s International Real Estate.

Sydney:

In Australia, overseas buyers are fueling the residential real estate market. With a weaker Australian dollar, many foreign investors, especially expats and buyers from Mainland China, are continuing to dominate the market, according to Darren Curtis, CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Syndey.

2024 has been a busy year in Australia, with demand continuing to outweigh supply, which in turn has driven up home prices. Investors have been keen on acreage, particularly, buying large plots of land close to Sydney’s central business district. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Curtis predicts that an extended high-interest-rate environment will slow market activity as buyers, faced with little urgency to act, take more time to make purchase decisions.

For more trends and insights, read the 2024 Global Luxury Mid-Year Outlook here.

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